Is the 2016 Economic Growth Forecast Realistic?

Is the 2016 Economic Growth Forecast Realistic?

The World Bank has adjusted its economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan. The Bank forecasts a negative economic growth (decline) by 1.9% to Azerbaijan this year against January’s expectation of positive growth at 0.8%. As a consequence, the forecast of growth for 2017 was revised down from +1.2% to +0.7% and in 2018 from +2.7% to +1.3%. The cause for that are worse-than-expected results of 2015.

Based on econometric-regression model and its survey, CESD forecasts 4.0 % negative growth for Azerbaijan in 2016. The CESD stated that the World Bank’s latest adjustment looks even more optimistic due to deep-seated decreasing in oil price and output in 2016.

Meanwhile, the Government of Azerbaijan forecasts economic growth by 1.8 % in 2016 which it seems very unrealistic based on the economic results of the first 5 months of this year. It should be noted here that both independent and official reports show that GDP continued declining in the reporting period. According to the State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, GDP decreased 4.5 % in the first quarter in 2016 since CESD calculations found out 5.3 % decline in the economy.
© CESD, 2016

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