CESD forecasts a slowdown in economic growth in Azerbaijan

The Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD) has adjusted its previous forecast of 3.5% GDP growth in 2011 to 1.8 %. The center also forecasts 3.2 % growth in the non-oil sector while the Azerbaijan government still targets 6.0 % growth in 2011. CESD reports that the inflation rate in Azerbaijan is expected to be 14.0 %, which scheduled only 5.0 % earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, The World Bank released its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report, forecasting slower economic growth the rest of this year and next. The World Bank is projecting a deceleration of gross domestic product (GDP) gains in the US, the euro zone, and the developing economies of Asia and Latin America compared to 2010.

The bank estimated that the world economy will expand by 3.2 percent this year, down from 3.8 percent in 2010. Global growth in both 2012 and 2013 is expected to edge up just 3.6 percent – below the 2010 rate.

CESD used different methods to calculate the macro-economic figures including GDP growth while an aggregation method and a weighting variable are chosen. Reasons how choices of the data source, the aggregation method and the weighting variable create are based on CESD estimation. CESD also used oil production forecasts and non-oil imports and exports, the volume of household and public consumption, capital formation and private and public investment data, as well as the impact of changing inflation on output to forecast GDP. The Center organized focus group discussions where estimations of macroeconomic data are included among the subject issues.

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