World Bank has lowered the forecast GDP Growth in Azerbaijan

World Bank has lowered the forecast GDP Growth in Azerbaijan

World Bank (WB), published a Global Economy Prospects Report. The Bank forecasts Azerbaijan’s GDP Growth by 3.1% in 2012, 3.5% in 2012, and 4.5 % in 2014. At the same time a surplus current account in Azerbaijan this year will be as expected in the WB, 24.9% of GDP next year – 21.6%, and in 2014 – only 18%.

Vugar Bayramov, the chairman of the Center for Social and Economic Development (CESD), mentioned that international financial institutions often change their forecasts for economic growth both globally and in individual countries. In particular, he said, the World Bank in the forecasts and the International Monetary Fund have significant changes. “The Azerbaijani government and World Bank this year’s forecast growth is mainly in non-oil sector. The fact that last year the non-oil sector has been growing at 9.6%. In the first quarter of this year, the comparable figure was 7.7%. But we should not forget that despite the growth in non-oil sector, the decline continued in the oil sector.”In this regard, the World Bank based on the data of both sectors, said Bayramov. “At the end of 2011, the World Bank predicted that GDP growth in Azerbaijan at the level of 6.1% this year. The government of Azerbaijan, in turn, predicted growth rate of 5.7%. The IMF forecast a (an increase of 2.5%), given at the end of last year, increased to 7.1%. CESD forecasts 3.4 % GDP Growth that time “.

In this regard, as follows from these figures, the World Bank forecast GDP growth in Azerbaijan reduced by about half, said Bayramov. “The reason is that, given the drop in oil prices on world markets, the downturn in the oil sector, according to analysts, the bank will accelerate.” According to the expert, after making changes to the budget, the GDP will increase by about 1%. “But the situation could change if oil falls below that specified in the budget ($ 100 per barrel),” – warned Bayramov.

Meanwhile, the State Committee on Statistics has published statistics on economic growth in the country in January-May of this year. In particular, the industrial sectors of the country during the period were made for services totaling 15 billion mantas ($19,2 billion). At the same time against the backdrop of growth in non-oil sector (8.8%) in the oil sector was marked by a decline of 5.1%. 77.5% of production accounted for by the mining industry, 17.1% of the share of manufacturing, 4.9% of the share of electricity production, and finally 0.5% of total production accounted for water purification and treatment of emissions. For the 6 months of oil production totaled 18.5 million tons of marketable gas 7.4 billion cubic meters. As for the non-oil sector, the increase was mainly recorded in the food and textile sectors. However, growth was recorded in the production of building materials, fabricated metal products, electricity, furniture, computers, etc.


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