Macro-economic Forecasts for Azerbaijan

Macro-economic Forecasts for Azerbaijan

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has released the forecasts on Azerbaijan’s main macroeconomic indexations.  According to EBRD, the GDP growth rate will make 3%, at the end of this year.  Same performance will be observed in 2012, too.   EBRD also forecasts that the inflation will be 9.1% in 2011.

Below tables show that macro-economic forecasts made by different institutes completely differ each other. For instance, IMF forecasts 2,8 % GDP Growth in 2011 meanwhile ADB forecasts 5,8 % which is higher than government forecast.

GDP Growth Forecast, %

Name of Institute 2011 2012
EBRD 3,0 3,0
CESD 1,8 1,2
IMF 2,8 2,5
World Bank 3,5 2,5
Government of Azerbaijan 3,8 5,0
ADB 5,8 5,8
Black Sea Trade and Development Bank 3,5 4,1

 

Sources; EBRD, CESD, IMF, WB, State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, ADB, BSTDB, 2011

Inflation Rate, %

Name of Institute 2011 2012
EBRD 9.1
CESD 14,5
IMF 10,5
Government of Azerbaijan 5,0
ADB 7,5 7,0

 

Sources; EBRD, CESD, IMF, , State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, ADB, 2011

Note; CESD used different methods to calculate macro-economic figures including GDP growth while an aggregation method and a weighting variable are chosen. Reasons how choices of the data source, the aggregation method and the weighting variable create are based on CESD estimation.  CESD also used oil production forecast and non-oil import and export, the volume of household and public consumption, capital formation and private and public investment data, as well as the impact of changing inflation on output to forecast GDP. The Center organized focus group discussions including meetings with representatives of different state agencies where estimations of macroeconomic data are included among the subject issues.

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