Azerbaijan Economy in The First Five Months in 2013; Brief Overview

Azerbaijan Economy in The First Five Months in 2013; Brief Overview

CESD- Center for Economic and Social Development concluded its macro-economic survey results for the first four months of year on June, 17, 2013. Meanwhile, State Statistic Committee reported that oil output in Azerbaijan declined by 3,0 % in the first five months of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012. Azerbaijan’s oil production was 18.1million tons in this period according to the State Statistical Committee. The country produced 18.5 million tons oil in the same period of 2012.

Both official ad independent calculated data show that decline in oil production and oil export was continued in the first five months of 2013. Although decline upsurge in the oil sector, the Government of Azerbaijan (GoA) forecasts growth in this sector for 2013, but it is hardly imagined to achieve this goal. While the Government of Azerbaijan (GoA) forecasted growth in oil sector, CESD does not share this optimism, which projects an output of 43,0 million tons of oil in 2013, even though decline in this sector was already registered in the first quarter of year. CESD forecasts a decline in oil output by 5,0 % in 2013 based on its econometric models and PSA matrix.

In the intervening time, State Statistic Committee reported that oil GDP decreased by 4,0 % in the first five months of 2013. In fact, ahead of a more pronounced decline in oil production, Azerbaijan’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth appears to be slowing from its recent heady pace. Macro-economic results of the first four months of 2013 proof that lower oil production will slow down Azerbaijan’s economy in 2013 but the downturn will be offset by expansion in the non-hydrocarbon sector because of high public spending.

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