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Azerbaijan Economy in the First Seven Months of 2016; Brief Overview

CESD- Center for Economic and Social Development concluded its macro-economic survey results for the first seven months in 2016. Both independent and official reports show that GDP continued declining in the reporting period. According to the State Statistic Committee of Azerbaijan, GDP decreased 3.0 % in the first seven months in 2016 since CESD calculations found out 3.7 % decline in the economy. According to the State Statistic Committee reports, the main reason of economic slowdown was economic decline in the construction sector. The committee has reported that 32.12 billion manat ($ 19.11 billion US) GDP was produced in the indicated period…

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Currency market in Azerbaijan: Why the national currency is losing its value?

It has already been three month since the national currency of the Republic of Azerbaijan continuously loses its value. Since the second half of 2014, due to the fall in oil prices on the world markets, the resulting pressure on the national currency – ‘Manat’ is ongoing nowadays. Overall, Manat lost 49.6% of its value in 2015 and in addition, with more 3% depreciation in the first 7 months of 2016, the losses could reach 52.6%. Although the occurring rapid dollarization and the observed stagnation in the business environment especially in imports in the first months of 2015 and 2016 resulted in short-term reduction in foreign exchange demand in March-May period of this year and strengthening the exchange rate of USD/AZN at the level of 1.49, the process of depreciation proceeded again afterwards. As a result, the national currency increased its annual losses to the level of 3% in June-July, by depreciating 7% against the US dollar again…

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CESD Press: The Potential Impacts of Brexit on Azerbaijan’s economy

As one of the centres of the global economy and financial sector, the exit of Great Britain from European Union made significant impacts on different countries in one way or another, and Azerbaijan was not an exception. This paper analysed the short and long-term impacts of Brexit on Azerbaijan by looking at State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan, UK-Azerbaijan relationship and potential benefits for Azerbaijan. The study found that the impacts of Brexit are difficult to gauge now as the referendum took place quite recently, thus, making it necessary to wait for some time in order to reach conclusion on the effects of this political event on Azerbaijan. However, it was found that Brexit’s impact on the exchange rates of certain currencies is likely to be important for SOFAZ. Moreover, Brexit can also positively affect Azerbaijani businesses and individuals that have or are planning to make a presence in Britain. The paper also discusses the potential impact of Brexit on Azerbaijan-EU relationships because the political event in Britain has many implications for Europe as well…

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Foreign Debt in Azerbaijan to widen on low oil prices

Foreign state debt of Azerbaijan amounted to 7,449 billion US dollars (11,4867 billion manat) as of April 1, 2016. The ratio of external debt to GDP ratio is 21.0 %. According to the Ministry of Finance of Azerbaijan, debt structure includes direct obligations of the state and contingent liabilities on borrowed loans under the state guarantees. Thus, 82.3% of public debt raised from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Japan International Cooperation Agency and other international financial institutions funding for various projects in the country. 17.7% of the funds raised through the placement of securities in the international financial markets…

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Azerbaijani Oil Income in May 2016

The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) reports that it exported 1.799 million tons of oil in May against 1.449 million tons in April and 1.9 million tons in March 2016. Oil export in May 2016 increased compared with April 2016, however, it decreased compared with March 2016. Azerbaijani oil export increased by 24.2% in May against April 2016 and decreased by 6.0 % compared with March 2016.

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National currency rate in Azerbaijan: is the stability sustainable?

Plummeting oil prices since the third quarter of 2014 have shaped new market conditions for the national currency of Azerbaijan. For the first time after the global financial crisis of 2008, the national currency has encountered serious challenges. The Central Bank attempted to preserve the stability of manat exchange rate at the expense of spending currency reserves. Although intervention operations have been initiated since August 2014, only 0.2 billion US dollars in total were spent in September, October and November for this purpose. However, intervention spending has rapidly increased reaching 1.2 billion US dollars in December 2014. During the following 2 months, the Central Bank was forced to take intervention measures of 1.08 and 1.68 billion US dollars respectively. As a result, currency reserves decreased to 11 billion dollars accounting for a 26.6% reduction within 3 months. One of the reasons for large-scale interventions was the society’s perception that devaluation was unavoidable, which thus increased the demand for foreign currency…

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Check out CESD’s new YouTube channel:

 

On October 17, 2010 the Economics Club of the Free Thought University gathered in their first seminar. Guest of the seminar was CESD Chairman, well-known economist Vugar Bayramov.

 

İqtisadiyyat Klubu / Vüqar Bayramov from afumedia on Vimeo.

On November 14, 2010 the Economics Club of the Free Thought University held their another meeting. The topic was about state investments and the guest – CESD Board Member, prominent economist Elchin Rashidov.

 

Economics Club / Elchin Rashidov from afumedia on Vimeo.

Here is a list of recommended blogs:

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/
http://chrisblattman.com/
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/
http://rodrik.typepad.com/
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/