The purpose of this research is to estimate and compare the future nominal exchange rate under the assumed liberal and regulated foreign exchange market environments by considering the context of the Azerbaijan economy for the next 24 months since the beginning of 2022. The estimations are conducted by building a mathematical model based on the set of assumptions and simulating the model by applying Monte-Carlo simulation logic for global oil prices on the Python program. The purpose is to show how supply and demand forces may interact in the assumed liberal and regulated foreign exchange markets and determine the potential future nominal exchange rate and to show to what extent the nominal exchange rate would depreciate if the forex market is liberated.