Macro-economic figures for the first quarter of 2014

Macro-economic figures for the first quarter of 2014

CESD- Center for Economic and Social Development concluded its macro-economic survey results for the first quarter of year on April 14, 2014. Although, the Government of Azerbaijan (GoA) managed to keep economic growth in the reporting period, but real GDP growth is 2 times lower than the 2014 target. State Statistics Committee reported 2.5 % GDP Growth for the first quarter of 2014.

According to the official reports, oil output declined 3.2 % meanwhile industrial production faced 2.4 % decline in the reporting period. Independent calculated data show that decline in oil production and oil export will continue in 2014, too. Although the Government of Azerbaijan (GoA) forecasted growth in oil sector, CESD does not share this optimism, which projects an output of 42,0 million tons of oil in 2014, even though decline in this sector was already registered in the first month of year. CESD forecasts decline in oil output by 2,5 % in 2014 based on its econometric models and PSA matrix.

CESD assumes that GoA will adjust its macro-economic data for 2014 due to decline in oil sector. Government forecasts 4.7 % GDP Growth in 2014 and 10.0 % growth in non-oil sector. In fact, the non-oil sector will benefit from elevated government spending as well as corporate lending and solid domestic consumption in 2014.

Download Full Azerbaijan Economy First Quarter 2014 Report

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